James Seyffart, ETF research analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may potentially be ready with a decision on spot Bitcoin ETF approval as soon as November 8, 2023 until November 21 for various filings. However, he has predicted with a 90% probability the conservative deadline before which the Commission could approve a bunch of ETF filings.
Bitcoin ETF Approval: “No Kingmaker”
In a recent interview, Seyffart said the US SEC would be careful not to announce a lone filing approval to avoid giving out a first mover advantage among all the 12 companies vying for the first ever spot ETF approval in the United States. He reiterated the previous prediction odds at 75% by the end of 2023 but warned that there could be a bunch of approvals together when the announcement comes out.
“We think the SEC is going to try and allow most of not all of them to launch on the same day. They are not going to play kingmaker.”
The final deadline for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF falls on Jan 10, 2024. Seyffart added that it is unlikely the SEC will deny ARK filing by January 10 and then approve all the other ETF applications in March 2024, hence making the case for a preponed decision either in November or December 2023.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: BTC Custody
Speaking about the custodian methods Bitcoin ETF providers could use, Seyffart predicted that companies would be distributed among the likes of Coinbase ($COIN) and Gemini when it comes to their crypto custody. He explained that the flip side to it would be having the supply off chain, leading to rise in demand to supply ratio of BTC. Also, the Bitcoin Halving scheduled for the second quarter of 2023 would only further reduce the BTC supply.
Hence, this leaves space for a bullish wave for Bitcoin BTC price, in proportion to the reduction in supply as well as other macroeconomic events like the potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, in the second quarter of 2023. Will the BTC price reach upwards of $50,000 by the year end?
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